Media Forecast 2010

With our primary role in TRACK2MEDIA being media consultancy, a lot of people keep asking as to which way the Indian media is heading to in the year 2010. Different people have different reasons to be curious-journalist friends want to know whether the gloomy picture in the media world will continue in the year ahead. The clients in the corporate world are always curious to understand the behavioral dilemma with the necessary evil called media.
Speaking from the perspective of TRACK2MEDIA as a media consulting agency and from a personal standpoint, what media means to us is something which is our forte, our core competency, and certainly our bread and butter. This is also one of the sunrise industries in the Indian market today. I know this statement will raise quite a few eyebrows in today’s context when the television channels are increasingly attempting to get top thin in their hierarchy and overall management practice.
One of the leading group of television channels has only recently hired a global audit firm to measure the employees’ productivity. With the mandate to roll the heads from the top (read all highly paid), restructuring resulted in many of the professionals being shown the doors. If industry grapevine is to be believed, another leading media house is ready with its own liability list. Country’s leading national daily with a financial daily, a news channel and a business television channel has also went through massive restructuring this year.
However, I am still optimistic and this euphoric state of mind has got nothing to do with the measured advertising expenditure in the year 2009. If I go by the Information & Broadcasting Ministry’s clearance to a number of television channels in the recent past, television as a medium of news certainly seems to be poised for another expansion spree. It may not grow vertically and qualitatively, but a horizontal growth and quantitative growth is certainly on the cards.
Even from the advertising and marketing sustenance point of view, on a macro level hardly anyone will argue against the fact that India has become the global hot spot for any global brand. From FMCG to luxury & super luxury, all roads are leading into Indian market today. India along with China has emerged as the market that is critical in any global brand’s strategy for expansion. However, I must admit here that the idea of advertising is vague. And statistics are just that – statistics.
A more critical look into 2010 for the two media platforms leading the way (television and online) will unveil a better idea of where the media is heading to. The rationale of evaluating only the television and online media is that print has apparently reached its saturation point in this part of the world and there is no major expansion on the cards. Even some of the global newspapers tying up with an Indian partner for the local edition over here have put their plans on shelves for the time being. Television and Internet, however, is heading northwards with more players joining the fray.
Journalist friends in the print media may crib that their intellectual superiority and low pay is shameful as against the triple S and one P (Sex, Sensationalism, Silly & Politics) driven television where PYT (Pretty Young Thing) is all you need to succeed. But television will continue to go some distance as against some other forms of advertising, including that of Internet and Outdoor. Television in India may be ridiculed by the serious but minority audience and academicians but it will never go away, at least not in the foreseeable future.
Actually the footprint of television in India is a case study as to how media is consumed and preferred in this part of the world. In terms of marketing strategy, 2010 may see the Indian television shifting from the traditional Ad-Breaks to that of Media Value. The fine blending of advertising and editorial content seems to be on the cards. In the US, this transformation has started long ago starting with the advent of online videos and digital video recorders. These technologies allowed viewers to skirt traditional advertising and put more pressure on media value and brand integration in the content themselves.
With more advertisers ready but cautious with their advertising dollars, the idea of branded integration will emerge as the new buzz word amongst agencies and content providers. Theoretically good content may be the king but advertisers still need to balance the idea of brand image with that of media value. To be precise, branded content may be more readily available, but media value is not about availability but if its right for the brand.
Internet opened up in India nearly over a decade ago and the new kid on the block immediately got a setback. The dot com bubble burst n late ‘90s was inevitable for two specific reasons- with very low internet penetration the whole idea was ahead of its time; and then everybody thought of making a million or two through the cheapest media vehicle possible with no quality content in the kitty. However, over the past decade the increasing internet penetration has ensured that Indian netizens grow phenomenally and online media is a formidable alternative platform to that of television, and believe it or not, even print. If the largest media baron of the world Rupert Murdoch believes the time has come for the paid content online, he has reasons to believe so.
While Internet advertising revenue growth in the US and some other parts of Europe has reached a saturation point of under 5%, Indian forecast of around 20% growth in 2010 sounds too lucrative. This has also led to digital advertising agencies appearing out of nowhere for the first time in the last couple of years. After all, this is where the key elusive demographic that the majority of global advertisers are salivating to get a chance to market is consuming their media.
For 2010, the big question about online advertising is not about why, but where. Google Analytics has suddenly emerged as much in demand as TRPs are there for television. Unlike television where advertising has more of a defined role of where trends are shaping the industry, online is fast emerging as the happy hunting ground for advertisers looking for low cost and high value medium with a global audience.
However, it seems that the lessons learnt from the first round of dot com bubble burst have been easily forgotten here. What is happening once again is that everyone is a content provider whether legitimate or not. In the absence of any defined regulation and the low cost operation, websites have suddenly mushroomed on anything and everything. This makes the job of serious website companies even tougher to produce more quality content and create the right marketing and promotion campaigns to make online advertising a legitimate success. As a practitioner of brand management I feel the online media will see some serious Off-line branding in order to create a market differentiator.
No wonder, when TRACK2MEDIA did a market feasibility survey for its forthcoming online news venture www.indianewsstreet.com, most of the marketers in this part of the world opined that online is a dynamic but fluid media platform. We do understand that advertisers understand the language of ROI (return on investment) and with constantly evolving platforms without rules and metrics, providing a sustainable business model will constantly be a major challenge. For 2010, it will be a year of proving out the validity of online as content providers, updated & instant platforms, and advertisers converge to figure out the right business model in the Indian market.
Television has an edge over here due to platform convergence because this not just ensures having the content available on both online and television, but utilizing both platforms to cross-promote the content and ultimately enhance the viewer experience. For television, online provides a whole new dimension of watching programs from audience interactivity and behind-the-scenes footage to an e-commerce component and social-networking aspect. The marketing strategy of TV 18 is a case study in this context.
If the serious engagement of both the print and television media with their Live Online Site is any indication in 2009, there will be some really serious competition in the segment. Thus, for the media groups with “Only Online” platform to offer, rich content, distinct market positioning and cutting edge exclusivity is the only answer. In the words of legendary Mark Twain, take the roads less travelled by and 2010 is the year for all of you seriously involved with the Online Media. Despite the ups and mostly downs of the media sector in the year, 2010 only promises a better and optimistic media market in India.