Challenges beyond the euphoria of stable government

By: Ravi Sinha

Stable government has been the buzz word in India for quite some time; it has actually been one of the focal points of General Elections of 2014. In India since 1984 no government at centre could take charge of the office without the added baggage of unlike minded friends as alliance partners. The rise and growth of regional aspirations and emergence of regional power centres, however, has always been blamed in the academic circles as bad economics and governance since pulls and pressures of conflicting interests had brought the governance at standstill on many occasions. Just at a time when the country seemed to be destined to policy paralysis, the electoral verdict of 2014 has changed the dynamics of governance altogether.

A clear and decisive mandate to the NDA Government at centre clearly suggests that the days of coalition compulsions are over. While the political pundits are deliberating over the cost-benefit analysis of too powerful a government with toothless opposition and weakening regional forces, India’s business community has finally got what it has been looking for: a stable government with business friendly face as the Prime Minister of India. However, with the obvious sky high expectations the challenges for the new government at office is not that easy. And it is not just the business captains of the country; rather even the young first-time voters who turned out in record numbers to cast votes are equally restless to see the tangible results too soon.

What can the government do to make sure the perception of policy paralysis changes? Of course, the only answer to this is the measures that the new government can take to revive the economy. Once the economy is on a growth curve, many other pending issues will naturally be on the back seat with collective consciousness backing the growth story of the country. Hence, the new government has some real challenges to deal with beyond the euphoria of a stable government at the helm of affairs.

A turnaround of the economic wheel is, however, not easy as the current account deficit clearly suggests there is no room for any largesse on part of the government; rather subsidies and other beneficiary measures have to be curbed in the short term. What affects the most to the average Indians, interest rate, can also not be cut till the time inflation is not curbed. It is a catch 22 of Indian economy and a balancing act is something that will be the first acid test of the government.

So, the first task that is cut out for the Narendra Modi Government is to control the inflation that has been the prime reason why they have been given the mandate. This can be quite a challenge, if the forthcoming Monsoon does not play as sportingly as the voters for the Modi Government. After all, India’s economy is still dictated by the monsoon fortunes. Naina Lal Kidwai, CEO, HSBC India has a suggestion for the government when she says, “The government should, on a priority basis, restart the investment cycle. It should free the land, labour and capital markets from their rigidities; make fiscal prudence the cornerstone of its functioning; evolve a plan for mitigating food inflation. On the social side, it should look at areas like health, environment and education.”

However, framing a roadmap for fiscal consolidation is easier said than done; it has its own challenges. The government will have no option but to constantly increase the fuel prices to completely eliminate subsidy and that is something which may not go down well with the voters who have high expectation of government’s largesse. Use of direct transfer of cash for subsidies is one of the many measures to help check the public anger, but then such attempts in the past have been met with quite resistance by various sections, including the party that is now in power. Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC has a word of caution in his wish list when he says, “The economic agenda is huge. What is needed is simplification. In the World Bank ranking on ease of doing business we are right at the bottom. I think the name of the game should be to make it simpler for people to invest.”

Though the government seems to be determined to improve business environment by easing laws and policies, it is not something that can be achieved in a short span of time. As a matter of fact, a long term strategy is needed to see tangible results after easing the FDI norms and time-bound clearances of projects. After all, a poor business environment has deterred the investment in India, of late, which is the biggest reason of decline in growth. Add to it, corruption and leakage in the system at every level and the new government has a challenge in hand to deal with.

There is no denying that long-pending reforms such as GST and DTC need to be implemented at the earliest. There is also a need to expedite the liberalisation of FDI regime. The India Inc is by and large optimistic that with a strong mandate, the new government will do well and will implement economic policies that benefit people and industry.

Rahul Gaur, CMD of Brys Group has a caveat here when he urges the new government to ease credit flow to industry and infrastructure. According to him, at a time when the government does not have financial surplus and the nation is struggling to manage with the shortages, the core focus should be to identify the execution capability to execute the large infra projects. For that the government should better create an atmosphere where private players have access to long term funds.

“The policies of the government have to be clear on the lending norms and the government should target steps to boost lending to infrastructure sector. Housing and infrastructure can revitalise the economy, create more jobs and bring overall change in the outlook to the economy. I do understand the reluctance of banks to fund infrastructure due to asset liability mismatch but then better infrastructure is the only way to help the country grow at above 8% GDP. I feel the time has come for the government to roll out clearly defined measures for ease of credit flow,” says Gaur. 

Analysts have often pointed out that one of the key areas where India could have reaped its demographic dividend is the manufacturing sector; something that China has already done in the last over two decades. The new government must take pro-active steps to encourage local manufacturing and for that it should give fast track clearances to stalled manufacturing projects; re-look the SEZ policy which have thus far proved to be detrimental and also the government can put the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor on a fast forward execution.

Many economists believe instead of pro-poor policies like NAREGA, streamlining the manufacturing is a better way to bring the poor into economic mainstream and also lessen India’s dependence on the agriculture. However, all these measures may sound to be very easily achievable, yet it needs time and concerted efforts to achieve. That could not be achieved in the last few years due to the compulsions of coalition politics. The challenge of governance is no doubt beyond the euphoria of a stable government.  

Will Varanasi bless or curse Lord Shiva’s political incarnation?

Battle ground Varanasi 

By: Ravi Sinha

March 23, 2014

The holy river Ganges flows quietly, unmindful of the fact that on its bank Varanasi has suddenly become the epicentre of political tremors. It is early morning of March third week but the weather is still cold; not so the climate otherwise where elections have made the ambience and political temperature of the city too ‘hot’. The early morning chill in the weather does not deter the God fearing Hindus to take a dip or two in the holy river. However, it is not the sin washing in the river that is the topic of debate today in this part of the world. It is the apprehension of more sins being committed during elections that has made India’s spiritual capital nervous; even though a section of the residents are enthusiastic with the prospect of a Prime Minister representing the Lok Sabha constituency of Varanasi for the first time.

The sin washing city has nevertheless got a date with electoral sins and siyasat. The way Lok Sabha polls are turning into personal glorification, holier-than-thou rhetoric and mudslinging in this temple town, it can be vouchsafed that Varanasi is poised to witness electoral sins this time and the possibility of candidates’ confrontation and violence can not be ruled out. The city that dawns the day with ‘Har Har Mahadev’ (Hail Lord Shiva) is today chanting ‘Har Har Modi’ (Hail Modi as PM), much to the discomfort of the sadhus and priests in the city.

Varanasi has changed over the years, earlier known as Kashi and Banaras; in the process of this name change it seems there has been a remarkable image makeover as well. It is no more just a temple town known for shradh and tarpan; nor is it known for its red light areas, known as kothas and the mujra. The old classic charm of Banarasi Saree has also lost its sheen over the years. The pace of cosmopolitan culture has been slow but sure, changing the outlook of the urban landscape to a large extent. The big question in front of the residents of the city today is whether Varanasi will change forever.

More important for Varanasi is the question as to whether it will get benefitted by the prospects of a Prime Minister representing the constituency? Or will the city just be of symbolic importance and the only compensation for the city would be long lasting politics of hatred? After all, Varanasi has moved ahead of the Ram Mandir movement days when the communal divide coming out of the neighbouring Ayodhya had engulfed the city. Again it took the city years to get back to normalcy when the students took to streets violently post the implementation of Mandal Commission recommendations where the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) was one of the key centres of caste divide.    

The scars of those gory days can still be traced and despite of years of moving ahead the city still goes to polls by and large divided over the caste lines. I met a number of people with deep roots in the city and its social & cultural fabric to understand the pulse and political mood of the holy city. I asked them will a new challenger in the ring bring the city into global spotlight. After all, many of the journalists representing international media are equally curious to know that. This mad rush to Varanasi by media, supporters of Modi and Kejriwal has led to scarcity of hotel rooms in the city.

With the help of a local journalist friend I could somehow settle in a guest house. Obviously, my probe of the city’s political temperament started from there only. “Beta ye Kejriwal toh aam aadmi nahin ganda aadmi hai. Bhagvaan hamare Banaras ko dharna pradarshan se bachaye (Son, this kejriwal is a filthy guy. May God save our city from protests and hooliganism),” says Vibha Devi, about 70-years-old caretaker of the guest house who has spent her lifetime in the city. Even otherwise, the residents of the city are least bothered with who is being projected by the media and who is getting demolished by soundbite hungry journalists.

Rakesh Sharma is a local Brahmin with half of the family into the business of temple maintenance & priesthood and the rest into selling sweets. Who is his choice as the Member of Parliament from the city? “Frankly speaking, no one,” says a dejected Sharma, maintaining that his first choice is and will always be with the BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi. “Modi has betrayed our trust in the saffron party, yet will see if any other candidate is not in a position to win then will vote for Modi only. It is irony of Banaras that we are being used for political gains,” he says. Why not a radical newcomer in Kejriwal who champions for clean politics? A dismissive Sharma’s face says it all. “He also champions for anarchy and lawlessness which is not good for the business community,” says Mannu Garg, a local shopkeeper who believes this guy is just a media time pass. He also makes it clear that the major share of Brahman-Baniya votes has historically gone to the same candidate.

However, it is not that Kejriwal’s self righteousness has no takers in the city. As a matter of fact, Garg’s outburst so openly led to minor scuffle by a few youths who, realising there is a journalist around, immediately brought out their “Aam Aadmi” caps and started shouting slogans in their trademark hooligan style and spirit. They are the backbone of a well orchestrated campaign of the debutant Aam Aadmi Party. Already the cyber cafes are doing a brisk business in the temple city as youths throng over these places to get connected over the social networking platforms.

On a closer look, however, the youth support is more of a fizz than substance. What seems to be working against Kejriwal is the same youth support, or rather lack of it, in terms of organised cadre. The students of BHU, IIT and medical colleges are not as enthusiastic in the city as in some other urban centres across India. Part of the blame goes to the disenchantment with Kejriwal’s mishandling of power in Delhi and partly because they endorse Modi as the Prime Minister.

“Why are you media guys that much interested in Kejriwal? Remember if he loses, he will blame it on to you journalists only,” says a sarcastic IIT student. Another BHU student points out that there is more than what meets the eyes as far as AAP campaign is concerned. For example, points out this student, the guy chanting Kejriwal’s “Abhi toh Shiela haari hai, Ab Modi ki baari hai” (Shiela Dixit has lost and now it is Modi’s turn) is actually a paid volunteer who was an activist for the BJP in the last Assembly polls.  

Even if the youths and first time voters go for Kejriwal the relevant question is whether the youths are enough to make someone win elections. And it is here that a new twist to the story comes. It is about the participation of women in the polls. Till now they have voted on the lines of what the men folk in their families have instructed for. Will it change this time? Will the women of Varanasi take a leaf out of Delhi women? If yes, then for whom? These are the questions that can upset the electoral calculations completely. Politics, after all, is a game of improbability.

What do the women in the city think of? “Modi ji ki jaroorat hai kyunki mehangai bahut badh gayi hai (Modi is needed as inflation is a real issue),” says Anjana Mathur, a house wife. This may just be a mere perception of a woman who hardly understands the intricacies of economics; nor does she know what drives inflation or what tames it. But then Varanasi, like the rest of the nation, goes to cast votes driven largely by perception. Question Gujarat’s developmental model with statistics and even the diehard NaMo fan has no answer.

But then Modi’s projection as political Lord Shiva has not gone down well in the temple town. And it is not just the saints and a section of Brahmins who find that the Lord Shiva’s mantle to Modi is in bad taste, but this undercurrent has many takers across the constituency of Varanasi. Requesting anonymity a Hindi lecturer of Banaras Hindu University admits that the undercurrent may prove to be the worst strategic move for the BJP. Also, too early declaration of Modi’s candidature has given the city enough time for a cost & benefit analysis, while opposition got the time to sharpen its attack on both development and communal card of Modi.

I asked some of the doctors and other educated people over their coming out openly in favour of the Kejriwal’s AAP. No one would like to admit openly but the answer, like in most parts of the urban India, seems to be quite simple. They know that it is next to impossible to get party tickets from the established political parties and hence vying for their share of the cake that they feel can be baked. That incidentally also dents into the vote share of the established political parties; in today’s context more of BJP’s vote share, because this urban educated middle class has otherwise been a BJP vote bank. AAP supporters maintain that the momentum for Kejriwal is yet to shape up and it is their trademark door-to-door campaigning close to the voting that will actually shape the course of polarisation.

It is not that BJP is not conscious of this biggest possible face loss. Arvind Kejriwal definitely does not appear like Amitabh Bachchan defeating HN Bahuguna in the neighbouring city of Allahabad in 1984, nor is there a backing of any Rajiv Gandhi to Kejriwal; at least the Congress is not going to back Kejriwal openly even though some tacit understanding is being whispered in the temple town nowadays. I spoke to the local unit of the BJP office in Gulab Bagh where many of the volunteers admitted that to merge river Ganges and Sabarmati in terms of political direction is a challenge. “To say that it is a walkover for Modi would amount to insulting our volunteers’ hard work,” admitted a party functionary requesting anonymity.  

Another challenge for the Modi is to counter the perception that he may desert the constituency after winning the elections. However, the dominant feeling in the temple city is narrated by this boatman Ganesh who says, “Varanasi has got the historic opportunity to elect the Prime Minister, and not just a Member of Parliament.” What seems to be working in favour of Modi is the strategic marriage of Hindutva, Social Engineering, Development and Division of Secular Votes.

“Is Congress out of the race,” I asked this to an office goer who belongs to Thakur (Rajput) community. “What makes you think so? Media can not make or break the fortunes of the candidates, not at least in Banaras,” says this gentleman. With last Lok Sabha polls being closely contested despite of the constituency being a Murli Manohar Joshi’s stronghold, he believes it is going to be a four-cornered contest between the BJP, Qaumi Ekta Dal’s Mukhtar Ansari, the BSP and the Congress. The only party that has lost the ground substantially with the face loss is the Samajwadi Party despite being in power in the State.

The role of the debutant in Kejriwal can not be denied but all his calculations are based on who eats into whose vote share. By and large Kejriwal is banking on wishful and fancy thoughts of a miracle. The division of secular votes is only going to benefit the BJP, unless there is a substantial erosion of urban educated middle class votes. Even in such a scenario, Kejriwal can get an edge only if this vote share swings in his favour, added with the consolidation of secular votes en masse for his style of politics.

The local journalists maintain that Kejriwal’s game plan is based on very many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and even one loose end is enough for him to bite the dust. In terms of caste equations, erosion of vote share is only going to benefit the BJP as Kejriwal, Samajwadi Party’s Kailash Chaurasiya and BSP’s Vijay Prakash Jaiswal are all OBCs. If the Congress fields a credible Brahmin candidate, the loss of some Brahmin and OBC votes can really upset Modi, helping Ansari sweep the polls.

In terms of vote share, out of the 16 lakh voters in Varanasi, Muslims are 3 lakh voters, followed by Brahmins, Patels (Kurmis) and Baniyas having 2 lakh each, Yadavs, Dalits and Bhumihar have 1 lakh each votes. It also has a marginal Gujarat connection with around 25000 Gujarati voters. The BJP has won in 5 of the last 6 Lok Sabha polls while losing 2004 to Congress’ Rajesh Kumar Mishra. At present, out of the 5 Assembly seats that are part of the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, BJP leads the region with 3 Vidhan Sabha seats.      

Who is the principal challenger for Modi? Is it Kejriwal? There is no denying that AAP has created a cadre within a short span of time but then most of the volunteers are either youth driven by false sense of idealism or the disgruntled elements of other parties who were denied what they were seeking for. Even if that translates into votes en block, Kejriwal does not stand as the principal challenger in a four-cornered fight. As a matter of fact, as things stand today, it is the Qaumi Ekta Dal candidate Mukhtar Ansari who can upset the PM aspirant, only if all secular votes are not divided.

If the Muslim votes are split between the Qaumi Ekta Dal, Congress, the BSP and AAP, then Modi is a clear winner. Shams Zaidi, a weaver of Banarasi Saree is optimistic of a Modi debacle. According to him, the Muslims nowadays do not vote en block but strategically to make sure that one can defeat the BJP. For the outside world, Mukhtar Ansari may be a mafia don, but for this weaver he is the ‘real hero’ of the constituency who can take the bull in Modi by horns. “Loha hi lohe ko kat sakta hai sahab, ek Modi jaise badmaash ka jawaab Mukhtar bhai hi de sakte hain (Only iron can cut iron sir. Only Mukhtar Ansari can face an evil Modi),” he says candidly.    

Can Muslim votes alone help Mukhtar Ansari upset the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate? Jamshed Siddiqui, a local human rights activist makes it a point when he says that it is not just about the Muslim votes that are going to be cast en block to Mukhtar Ansari. “As a matter of fact, Mukhtar bhai has a clout in the region and is largely seen as messiah for the downtrodden. So, while the major share of the Muslim votes will go for him, some share of Dalit and OBC votes will add to that,” says Siddiqui.

Pandit Rajeev Mishra seems to agree with the orientation of Muslim votes. He, however, has a different reason to believe that Mukhtar is best placed to upset the BJP’s trump card in Varanasi. “Never forget the fact that Modi is a non-Brahmin who has usurped the seat of a Brahmin candidate and this has not gone down well with the Brahmins. Add to that his arrogance of replacing ‘Har Har Mahadev’ with ‘Har har Modi’ in the temple town of Varanasi. This has completely turned the Brahmins and priests off,” says Sharma. But will Brahmins ever vote for Mukhtar Ansari? “Definitely not, but if any other party, like the Congress for instance, fields a strong and acceptable Brahmin candidate then the Brahmin votes will go against Modi. The candidate himself may not win, but such a division of votes will definitely help the Ansari emerge as winner,” he adds.    

It is not that the stakes are high only for the BJP as their prime ministerial candidate is in the fray. As a matter of fact, the stakes are very high for AAP as well, since a defeat for Kejriwal means moral loss for the man who is the face of the party that challenges all the established political norms, parties and the institutions. His only hope and expectations bank on the combined voting of the youths, urban electorates and the women, if only they don’t vote on the identity politics of caste lines. That, unfortunately, is a ‘Big If’ in a city like Varanasi and Modi seems to be the frontrunner as of now.

Who knows last minute polarisation may give an edge to the Don in Ansari, the Congress or even the BSP candidate. After all, Varanasi has a date with political destiny and all eyes are set on the outcome. Old timers in the city are rather wondering whether Lord Shiva’s Varanasi will bless or curse its political incarnation. At least the old timers and the spiritual people in the city are not impressed with ‘Har Har Modi’ chants. But as the political analysts and local journalists in the city maintain the undercurrent in the city is conflicting this time and the choice is between blessing a Prime Ministerial candidate from the constituency and the urge to curse his projection as Shiva. 

Only wish that is on the lips of every concerned residents (both voters and non-voters) in the holy city that washes sins is that this last moment polarisation does not happen with more sins and violence that the politics of hatred threatens to unleash. The city is keeping its fingers crossed. Till the time the date of Varanasi with electoral sin is over, the temple city is sitting on a potential time bomb. The river Ganges nevertheless flows quietly and while sitting on its banks in the evening, Ganga Aarti is so therapeutic that it is easy to forget what all venom is being spitted in its arms in the name of electoral politics and governance. The nature does not endorse politics of hatred, and the holy river is really unmindful of what political plots are being hatched in its blessed temple town.    

Development or developmental engineering replacing social engineering

Oct 9. 2013 Ravi Sinha

Social engineering is passé as it has fallen flat on the face of those who engineered it successfully for long, be it Laloo Yadav in Bihar or Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh. It is ‘Out’ and what has come ‘In’ promises to transform the Indian politics in general and governance in particular. Sadly, this new opium of masses is even more dangerous as this emerging genre of vote bank politics takes even higher a moral ground in the name of ‘Votes for Development’. However, beyond this idealistic façade lies another sort of engineering—‘Developmental Engineering’ which as of now has earned enough curiosity among the media and intellectuals. Its proponents nevertheless fall way short of not just ideals but also ideas for any tangible transformation, be it Narendra Modi or Arvind Kejriwal.      

Intellectuals argue whether any other term has been so over-used and abused in the collective consciousness at the political level than ‘Development’ which, of course, means different things to different people. For some it is the GDP growth that is indicator of development, others find holistic development including liveability index and other social indicator as a benchmark. Populism has also been a development indicator in this part of the world for quite some time, but social engineering is increasingly waning and the void that it creates promises to put development card on the forefront.

With the general elections 2014 a few months away and five states also going for polls, the subject of development has yet again gained prominence. While it is convenient to assume that the young and aspiration driven India is no more ready to be carried by rhetoric alone, a close scrutiny of India’s socio-political consciousness reflects development as an agenda is yet to make inroads into politics and translate into votes. India’s ballot box traction point runs much deeper than macro level media rhetorics. In the name of development, what is actually happening is that a sort of developmental engineering is replacing the tried and tested social engineering that is waning its charm, thanks to its over-use and abuse by the so-called messiah of social justice.

There are two kinds of lies that are applied by respective governments to over-project its development card—plain lies and statistical engineering. The opposition party uses the same methodology to carry home the point lack of development. In plain lies all propaganda machinery is put to use to create an aura of ‘feel good’ or ‘fear psychosis’ which does not have a factual bearing on the ground. Secondly, it is the statistical engineering which is applied and by selective use of statistics it is made to believe that the state’s growth on development index is reflective of its progress. If Narendra Modi symbolises developmental engineering, Arvind Kejriwal is orchestrating plain lies.   

However, GDP growth or economic prosperity on a macro level does not often give the correct picture. Unless the state’s growth has been inclusive and growth is at par or parallel on various social indicators also, such growth is neither sustainable nor tangible enough to be called ‘Greater Good for Greater Number of People’.  

Take for instance the over-hyped and over-projected development model of Gujarat. Indeed the economic growth of Gujarat has been better than the national average. However, equally true is the fact that other states like Delhi, Bihar, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu have done better than Gujarat in recent times. Gujarat is neither the best performer in the top ten best performing states, nor is its growth evaluation on various key indicators any impressive.

Poverty, a key indicator of development is not reducing significantly in Gujarat and its less than impressive performance shows it is at number 18^th position. As per Planning Commission figure all India BPL (Below Poverty Line) percentage has gone down from 37.20 to 29.8 between 2004-05 and 2009-10 whereas Gujarat’s percentage has gone down by only 8.6 points during the same period. Add to it, the Chief Minister Narendra Modi’s lofty economic remark that nutrition has gone down because women are health conscious in the state and eat less. That, of course, is indicative of state’s seriousness with this key development metrics.

Even from a purely economic development standpoint, Gujarat is number nine among the top ten states with percentage of population having concrete roof over head. Even states like Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Punjab are ahead of Gujarat; with tiny places like Puducherry and Lakshadweep having better track record than Gujarat.  

In terms of sex ratio, another indicator of a developed state, Gujarat stands at a patriarchal low rank of 20^th position, with only 918 females per 1000 males. Though Gujarat often boasts of better literacy rate than the national average, its standing is at 15^th position in the country. In terms of infant mortality rate, again Gujarat’s statistical projection may boast of better than national average but it stands at 18^th position. Maternal mortality rate also shows states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are doing better than Gujarat.

This raises a fundamental question about the developmental engineering and its relevance beyond the vote bank politics. The moot point is development for whom and at what cost? Definitely, a development plank meant for industrialists can not be an effective development model. When the Congress President Sonia Gandhi emphasised that “passion for progress must be supplemented with compassion for poor” during deliberation on Food Security Bill, it was that grand vision of development model on which Gujarat stands nowhere.

Gujarat is just a case study here, but the fact of the matter is that many of the states that boast of development as their USP may not come out with relatively modest score when judged with all the key indicators of development. Reasons why many of the governments are shown the door even after creating so much of development projection, most classic example being the ‘India Shining’ of Atal Behari Vajpayee Government at centre.

In India the elections have by and large not been contested on development plank; it is just that the term development that is symptomatic of the developmental engineering instead of social engineering which has lived its shelf life. And it is not just the politicians alone who are to be blamed for this. What are we up to as Indians, as vote banks? Do we really scrutiny to differentiate the wheat from the chaff? If so, how come someone like Arvind Kejriwal take a moral high ground with absolutely no solution to offer for most of the developmental, both social and economic, problems afflicting the Indians.

So, it is basically one rhetoric being replaced by another without any tangible focus on development that still stands as the bane of Indian democracy. The mirage of a better governance continues; some have channelized it in the name of social justice while others are orchestrating in the name of development. Some others with no track record have taken an altogether different route of developmental engineering in the name of creating an utopian society. India just stands as the laboratory for all engineering and the Indian voters are at the best guinea pigs for them.  

Sorry Mr TVR Shenoy, your advocacy won’t make Modi a polarising factor

July 4, 2013, Ravi Sinha

Veteran journalists often become ‘veteran’ on the merit of their ideological backing to a given political party. It is not necessary that they actually believe in what they advocate publicly. But in the process they turn out to be the poor Xerox version of party hopping politicians looking for happy hunting ground. Senior journalist TVR Shenoy’s recent assumption of BJP being in a positioning to form a stable government at Centre and Narendra Modi being a polarising factor is a classic case in point.

Though I do not carry any authority to dictate or moderate any individuals’ fundamental right to opt for a governance choice—good, bad or indifferent but still would maintain that a political analyst should not write a pleasure analysis to a political party that promises to boomerang on the face of the writer itself in the days to come. Having said this, I understand that what bifurcates between political analysis and political advocacy in collective consciousness is very thin, especially when the stakes are pretty high, ranging from decorative ‘Padma Bibhushan’ to coveted ‘Rajya Sabha’ seat.

I believe it is better to be known as a journalist with outstanding credibility and tell on the face of the political party their grey zones, even if one ideologically supports them. That gives the journalist more credibility both as a party ideologue and from advocacy standpoint. With my limited exposure and understanding of Indian politics after nearly two decades of having seen it closely; first as a student leader, then a trade unionist and later as a journalist, I find no merit in the argument that next Lok Sabha will have a BJP-led government.

Even if BJP emerges as the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha elections, it is not the same BJP with a Vajpayee kind of manipulative organiser to hold the flock of 24 unlike-minded political parties. An arrogant Modi is not acceptable to the BJP itself within the party, forget the alliance partners.

Furthermore, the argument that the single largest party keeping out of government is a fundamental insult to the democracy is a misplaced conviction. This also challenges the fundamental tenets of democracy which has never been able to representational character world over. Added to this, the history of Indian democracy shows how the Congress has itself opted out of the government twice despite of emerging as the single largest party.

In the general election of 1989 the Congress won 197 seats, well ahead of the (then united) Janata Dal, which won 143 seats and BJP 85 seats with the Left Front getting 52 seats. V P Singh then became the Prime Minister not by playing on the fears of both the BJP and the Left Front, as TVR Shenoy would like us to believe, but because the Congress read the writing of an unstable government on the wall and strategically played it smart to bounce back to power within 15 months.

History repeated itself again in 1996 when the single largest party in the eleventh Lok Sabha was the BJP, with 161 seats. The Congress was second, having won 140 seats. But while the BJP remained untouchable to forge an alliance for the government, Congress played the trump card by roping in the Prime Minister of India to a man from a party with just 46 seats, the Janata Dal. True to the expectations of the Congress, the eleventh Lok Sabha lasted just over eighteen months before it was dissolved.

Coming to the next Lok Sabha elections, whether 2014 or 2013 itself, while the BJP is struggling to cope up with the leadership changes where the party stalwarts themselves are up against the so-called polarising figure in Modi, the BJP is slowly but surely losing grip on its core constituency and the states that it rules. If Karnataka was a big blow to them, coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are poised to be the beginning of the end of the BJP era that Vajpayee heralded 1996 onwards.

Moreover, no leader in any political party has ever been able to emerge as the national leader who does not come from the Hindi heartland, and Modi is no exception. Even Morarji Desai could not challenge this reality of Indian politics. Modi’s mindless PR of having saved 15,000 Gujaratis in Uttarakhand calamity in a single day has already proved that the rumour machinery that he so successfully managed in Gujarat does not have a national charisma. Added to this, the criminal cases related with Godhra and fake encounters looming large over his fortunes would be a great dampener for the BJP on the eve of general elections.

The short sighted parent organisation that the RSS is, it is also not helping the cause of the BJP. The saffron brigade that only recently glorified the so-called transparency movement of Anna Hazare assuming that such a rumour and road-side publicity stunt would defame the Congress and mobilise votes for them has already boomeranged on the BJP. Now Kejriwal may not be in a position to win any elections for his party but will surely eat into the anti-incumbency votes that would have otherwise gone to the BJP. Needless to say, the conventional wisdom of electoral politics suggests that such Index of Opposition Diversity is going to help the Congress in a big way.   

Moreover, the Congress that is the most strategic in governance and electoral politics has already started working on Plan A and Plan B. Remember it was not the BJP but the Congress that started Modi’s name dropping as a strategic ploy to play with the mind of the BJP. The realisation that the next Lok Sabha elections would be purely on national issues made them add fuel to the fire of so-called polarisation. And now it is going to be secular versus communal forces where even the regional parties are forced to take sides.

As a result, BJP’s first casualty has been Bihar Government of Nitish Kumar who is up to the sleeves of the Congress as Plan B. And since BJP is increasingly losing ground in each of the states, this game plan has viability as well. In case Congress fails to form its own government, something like the 1989 or 1996 scenario, it will extend outside support to the Third Front. Mr Shenoy’s remark on Third Front alliance of Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Navin Patnaik as East India Company is a racist statement in my opinion.

Such right wing political advocacy only makes the ideologue lose his credibility and lose his political spectrum as well in the long run. In the BJP right from Govindacharya to Swapan Dasgupta there is a long list of ideologues who floated heroic theories of BJP Government at the Centre only to be sidelined in course of its inherent failure. It is not the political advocacy that leads to the government formation but the ground realities that are at odds against the BJP. I can just wish Mr TVR Shenoy all the best…