Battle ground Varanasi
By: Ravi Sinha
March 23, 2014
The sin washing city has
nevertheless got a date with electoral sins and siyasat. The way Lok Sabha polls are turning into personal glorification,
holier-than-thou rhetoric and mudslinging in this temple town, it can be
vouchsafed that Varanasi is poised to witness electoral sins this time and the
possibility of candidates’ confrontation and violence can not be ruled out. The
city that dawns the day with ‘Har Har
Mahadev’ (Hail Lord Shiva) is today chanting ‘Har Har Modi’ (Hail Modi as PM), much to the discomfort of the sadhus and priests in the city.
Varanasi has changed
over the years, earlier known as Kashi and Banaras; in the process of this name
change it seems there has been a remarkable image makeover as well. It is no
more just a temple town known for shradh
and tarpan; nor is it known for its
red light areas, known as kothas and
the mujra. The old classic charm of
Banarasi Saree has also lost its sheen over the years. The pace of cosmopolitan
culture has been slow but sure, changing the outlook of the urban landscape to
a large extent. The big question in front of the residents of the city today is
whether Varanasi will change forever.
More important for Varanasi
is the question as to whether it will get benefitted by the prospects of a Prime
Minister representing the constituency? Or will the city just be of symbolic
importance and the only compensation for the city would be long lasting politics
of hatred? After all, Varanasi has moved ahead of the Ram Mandir movement days when the communal divide coming out of the
neighbouring Ayodhya had engulfed the city. Again it took the city years to get
back to normalcy when the students took to streets violently post the
implementation of Mandal Commission recommendations where the Banaras Hindu
University (BHU) was one of the key centres of caste divide.
The scars of those gory
days can still be traced and despite of years of moving ahead the city still
goes to polls by and large divided over the caste lines. I met a number of
people with deep roots in the city and its social & cultural fabric to
understand the pulse and political mood of the holy city. I asked them will a
new challenger in the ring bring the city into global spotlight. After all,
many of the journalists representing international media are equally curious to
know that. This mad rush to Varanasi by media, supporters of Modi and Kejriwal
has led to scarcity of hotel rooms in the city.
With the help of a local
journalist friend I could somehow settle in a guest house. Obviously, my probe
of the city’s political temperament started from there only. “Beta ye Kejriwal toh aam aadmi nahin ganda
aadmi hai. Bhagvaan hamare Banaras ko dharna pradarshan se bachaye (Son,
this kejriwal is a filthy guy. May God save our city from protests and
hooliganism),” says Vibha Devi, about 70-years-old caretaker of the guest house
who has spent her lifetime in the city. Even otherwise, the residents of the
city are least bothered with who is being projected by the media and who is
getting demolished by soundbite hungry journalists.
Rakesh Sharma is a local
Brahmin with half of the family into the business of temple maintenance & priesthood
and the rest into selling sweets. Who is his choice as the Member of Parliament
from the city? “Frankly speaking, no one,” says a dejected Sharma, maintaining
that his first choice is and will always be with the BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi.
“Modi has betrayed our trust in the saffron party, yet will see if any other candidate
is not in a position to win then will vote for Modi only. It is irony of
Banaras that we are being used for political gains,” he says. Why not a radical
newcomer in Kejriwal who champions for clean politics? A dismissive Sharma’s
face says it all. “He also champions for anarchy and lawlessness which is not
good for the business community,” says Mannu Garg, a local shopkeeper who
believes this guy is just a media time pass. He also makes it clear that the major
share of Brahman-Baniya votes has
historically gone to the same candidate.
However, it is not that
Kejriwal’s self righteousness has no takers in the city. As a matter of fact,
Garg’s outburst so openly led to minor scuffle by a few youths who, realising
there is a journalist around, immediately brought out their “Aam Aadmi” caps and started shouting slogans
in their trademark hooligan style and spirit. They are the backbone of a well
orchestrated campaign of the debutant Aam Aadmi Party. Already the cyber cafes
are doing a brisk business in the temple city as youths throng over these
places to get connected over the social networking platforms.
On a closer look,
however, the youth support is more of a fizz than substance. What seems to be
working against Kejriwal is the same youth support, or rather lack of it, in
terms of organised cadre. The students of BHU, IIT and medical colleges are not
as enthusiastic in the city as in some other urban centres across India. Part
of the blame goes to the disenchantment with Kejriwal’s mishandling of power in
Delhi and partly because they endorse Modi as the Prime Minister.
“Why are you media guys
that much interested in Kejriwal? Remember if he loses, he will blame it on to
you journalists only,” says a sarcastic IIT student. Another BHU student points
out that there is more than what meets the eyes as far as AAP campaign is
concerned. For example, points out this student, the guy chanting Kejriwal’s “Abhi toh Shiela haari hai, Ab Modi ki baari
hai” (Shiela Dixit has lost and now it is Modi’s turn) is actually a paid
volunteer who was an activist for the BJP in the last Assembly polls.
Even if the youths and
first time voters go for Kejriwal the relevant question is whether the youths
are enough to make someone win elections. And it is here that a new twist to
the story comes. It is about the participation of women in the polls. Till now
they have voted on the lines of what the men folk in their families have
instructed for. Will it change this time? Will the women of Varanasi take a
leaf out of Delhi women? If yes, then for whom? These are the questions that
can upset the electoral calculations completely. Politics, after all, is a game
of improbability.
What do the women in the
city think of? “Modi ji ki jaroorat hai
kyunki mehangai bahut badh gayi hai (Modi is needed as inflation is a real
issue),” says Anjana Mathur, a house wife. This may just be a mere perception of
a woman who hardly understands the intricacies of economics; nor does she know
what drives inflation or what tames it. But then Varanasi, like the rest of the
nation, goes to cast votes driven largely by perception. Question Gujarat’s
developmental model with statistics and even the diehard NaMo fan has no
answer.
But then Modi’s
projection as political Lord Shiva has not gone down well in the temple town.
And it is not just the saints and a section of Brahmins who find that the Lord
Shiva’s mantle to Modi is in bad taste, but this undercurrent has many takers
across the constituency of Varanasi. Requesting anonymity a Hindi lecturer of
Banaras Hindu University admits that the undercurrent may prove to be the worst
strategic move for the BJP. Also, too early declaration of Modi’s candidature has
given the city enough time for a cost & benefit analysis, while opposition
got the time to sharpen its attack on both development and communal card of
Modi.
I asked some of the
doctors and other educated people over their coming out openly in favour of the
Kejriwal’s AAP. No one would like to admit openly but the answer, like in most
parts of the urban India, seems to be quite simple. They know that it is next
to impossible to get party tickets from the established political parties and
hence vying for their share of the cake that they feel can be baked. That incidentally
also dents into the vote share of the established political parties; in today’s
context more of BJP’s vote share, because this urban educated middle class has
otherwise been a BJP vote bank. AAP supporters maintain that the momentum for
Kejriwal is yet to shape up and it is their trademark door-to-door campaigning
close to the voting that will actually shape the course of polarisation.
It is not that BJP is
not conscious of this biggest possible face loss. Arvind Kejriwal definitely
does not appear like Amitabh Bachchan defeating HN Bahuguna in the neighbouring
city of Allahabad in 1984, nor is there a backing of any Rajiv Gandhi to
Kejriwal; at least the Congress is not going to back Kejriwal openly even
though some tacit understanding is being whispered in the temple town nowadays.
I spoke to the local unit of the BJP office in Gulab Bagh where many of the
volunteers admitted that to merge river Ganges and Sabarmati in terms of
political direction is a challenge. “To say that it is a walkover for Modi
would amount to insulting our volunteers’ hard work,” admitted a party
functionary requesting anonymity.
Another challenge for the Modi is to counter the perception that he may desert the constituency after winning the elections. However, the dominant feeling in the temple city is narrated by this boatman Ganesh who says, “Varanasi has got the historic opportunity to elect the Prime Minister, and not just a Member of Parliament.” What seems to be working in favour of Modi is the strategic marriage of Hindutva, Social Engineering, Development and Division of Secular Votes.
“Is Congress out of the
race,” I asked this to an office goer who belongs to Thakur (Rajput) community.
“What makes you think so? Media can not make or break the fortunes of the
candidates, not at least in Banaras,” says this gentleman. With last Lok Sabha
polls being closely contested despite of the constituency being a Murli Manohar
Joshi’s stronghold, he believes it is going to be a four-cornered contest
between the BJP, Qaumi Ekta Dal’s Mukhtar Ansari, the BSP and the Congress. The
only party that has lost the ground substantially with the face loss is the
Samajwadi Party despite being in power in the State.
The role of the debutant
in Kejriwal can not be denied but all his calculations are based on who eats
into whose vote share. By and large Kejriwal is banking on wishful and fancy
thoughts of a miracle. The division of secular votes is only going to benefit
the BJP, unless there is a substantial erosion of urban educated middle class
votes. Even in such a scenario, Kejriwal can get an edge only if this vote
share swings in his favour, added with the consolidation of secular votes en
masse for his style of politics.
The local journalists
maintain that Kejriwal’s game plan is based on very many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and
even one loose end is enough for him to bite the dust. In terms of caste
equations, erosion of vote share is only going to benefit the BJP as Kejriwal,
Samajwadi Party’s Kailash Chaurasiya and BSP’s Vijay Prakash Jaiswal are all
OBCs. If the Congress fields a credible Brahmin candidate, the loss of some
Brahmin and OBC votes can really upset Modi, helping Ansari sweep the polls.
In terms of vote share,
out of the 16 lakh voters in Varanasi, Muslims are 3 lakh voters, followed by
Brahmins, Patels (Kurmis) and Baniyas having 2 lakh each, Yadavs, Dalits and
Bhumihar have 1 lakh each votes. It also has a marginal Gujarat connection with
around 25000 Gujarati voters. The BJP has won in 5 of the last 6 Lok Sabha
polls while losing 2004 to Congress’ Rajesh Kumar Mishra. At present, out of
the 5 Assembly seats that are part of the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, BJP leads
the region with 3 Vidhan Sabha seats.
Who is the principal
challenger for Modi? Is it Kejriwal? There is no denying that AAP has created a
cadre within a short span of time but then most of the volunteers are either youth
driven by false sense of idealism or the disgruntled elements of other parties
who were denied what they were seeking for. Even if that translates into votes
en block, Kejriwal does not stand as the principal challenger in a
four-cornered fight. As a matter of fact, as things stand today, it is the Qaumi
Ekta Dal candidate Mukhtar Ansari who can upset the PM aspirant, only if all
secular votes are not divided.
If the Muslim votes are
split between the Qaumi Ekta Dal, Congress, the BSP and AAP, then Modi is a
clear winner. Shams Zaidi, a weaver of Banarasi Saree is optimistic of a Modi
debacle. According to him, the Muslims nowadays do not vote en block but
strategically to make sure that one can defeat the BJP. For the outside world,
Mukhtar Ansari may be a mafia don, but for this weaver he is the ‘real hero’ of
the constituency who can take the bull in Modi by horns. “Loha hi lohe ko kat sakta hai sahab, ek Modi jaise badmaash ka jawaab Mukhtar
bhai hi de sakte hain (Only iron can cut iron sir. Only Mukhtar Ansari can
face an evil Modi),” he says candidly.
Can Muslim votes alone
help Mukhtar Ansari upset the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate? Jamshed
Siddiqui, a local human rights activist makes it a point when he says that it
is not just about the Muslim votes that are going to be cast en block to
Mukhtar Ansari. “As a matter of fact, Mukhtar bhai has a clout in the region
and is largely seen as messiah for the downtrodden. So, while the major share
of the Muslim votes will go for him, some share of Dalit and OBC votes will add
to that,” says Siddiqui.
Pandit Rajeev Mishra
seems to agree with the orientation of Muslim votes. He, however, has a
different reason to believe that Mukhtar is best placed to upset the BJP’s
trump card in Varanasi. “Never forget the fact that Modi is a non-Brahmin who
has usurped the seat of a Brahmin candidate and this has not gone down well
with the Brahmins. Add to that his arrogance of replacing ‘Har Har Mahadev’ with ‘Har
har Modi’ in the temple town of Varanasi. This has completely turned the
Brahmins and priests off,” says Sharma. But will Brahmins ever vote for Mukhtar
Ansari? “Definitely not, but if any other party, like the Congress for
instance, fields a strong and acceptable Brahmin candidate then the Brahmin votes
will go against Modi. The candidate himself may not win, but such a division of
votes will definitely help the Ansari emerge as winner,” he adds.
It is not that the
stakes are high only for the BJP as their prime ministerial candidate is in the
fray. As a matter of fact, the stakes are very high for AAP as well, since a
defeat for Kejriwal means moral loss for the man who is the face of the party
that challenges all the established political norms, parties and the
institutions. His only hope and expectations bank on the combined voting of the
youths, urban electorates and the women, if only they don’t vote on the
identity politics of caste lines. That, unfortunately, is a ‘Big If’ in a city
like Varanasi and Modi seems to be the frontrunner as of now.
Who knows last minute
polarisation may give an edge to the Don in Ansari, the Congress or even the
BSP candidate. After all, Varanasi has a date with political destiny and all
eyes are set on the outcome. Old timers in the city are rather wondering whether
Lord Shiva’s Varanasi will bless or curse its political incarnation. At least
the old timers and the spiritual people in the city are not impressed with ‘Har Har Modi’ chants. But as the
political analysts and local journalists in the city maintain the undercurrent
in the city is conflicting this time and the choice is between blessing a Prime
Ministerial candidate from the constituency and the urge to curse his
projection as Shiva.
Only wish that is on the
lips of every concerned residents (both voters and non-voters) in the holy city
that washes sins is that this last moment polarisation does not happen with
more sins and violence that the politics of hatred threatens to unleash. The
city is keeping its fingers crossed. Till the time the date of Varanasi with
electoral sin is over, the temple city is sitting on a potential time bomb. The
river Ganges nevertheless flows quietly and while sitting on its banks in the
evening, Ganga Aarti is so therapeutic that it is easy to forget what all venom is
being spitted in its arms in the name of electoral politics and governance. The
nature does not endorse politics of hatred, and the holy river is really
unmindful of what political plots are being hatched in its blessed temple
town.
