Challenges beyond the euphoria of stable government

By: Ravi Sinha

Stable government has been the buzz word in India for quite some time; it has actually been one of the focal points of General Elections of 2014. In India since 1984 no government at centre could take charge of the office without the added baggage of unlike minded friends as alliance partners. The rise and growth of regional aspirations and emergence of regional power centres, however, has always been blamed in the academic circles as bad economics and governance since pulls and pressures of conflicting interests had brought the governance at standstill on many occasions. Just at a time when the country seemed to be destined to policy paralysis, the electoral verdict of 2014 has changed the dynamics of governance altogether.

A clear and decisive mandate to the NDA Government at centre clearly suggests that the days of coalition compulsions are over. While the political pundits are deliberating over the cost-benefit analysis of too powerful a government with toothless opposition and weakening regional forces, India’s business community has finally got what it has been looking for: a stable government with business friendly face as the Prime Minister of India. However, with the obvious sky high expectations the challenges for the new government at office is not that easy. And it is not just the business captains of the country; rather even the young first-time voters who turned out in record numbers to cast votes are equally restless to see the tangible results too soon.

What can the government do to make sure the perception of policy paralysis changes? Of course, the only answer to this is the measures that the new government can take to revive the economy. Once the economy is on a growth curve, many other pending issues will naturally be on the back seat with collective consciousness backing the growth story of the country. Hence, the new government has some real challenges to deal with beyond the euphoria of a stable government at the helm of affairs.

A turnaround of the economic wheel is, however, not easy as the current account deficit clearly suggests there is no room for any largesse on part of the government; rather subsidies and other beneficiary measures have to be curbed in the short term. What affects the most to the average Indians, interest rate, can also not be cut till the time inflation is not curbed. It is a catch 22 of Indian economy and a balancing act is something that will be the first acid test of the government.

So, the first task that is cut out for the Narendra Modi Government is to control the inflation that has been the prime reason why they have been given the mandate. This can be quite a challenge, if the forthcoming Monsoon does not play as sportingly as the voters for the Modi Government. After all, India’s economy is still dictated by the monsoon fortunes. Naina Lal Kidwai, CEO, HSBC India has a suggestion for the government when she says, “The government should, on a priority basis, restart the investment cycle. It should free the land, labour and capital markets from their rigidities; make fiscal prudence the cornerstone of its functioning; evolve a plan for mitigating food inflation. On the social side, it should look at areas like health, environment and education.”

However, framing a roadmap for fiscal consolidation is easier said than done; it has its own challenges. The government will have no option but to constantly increase the fuel prices to completely eliminate subsidy and that is something which may not go down well with the voters who have high expectation of government’s largesse. Use of direct transfer of cash for subsidies is one of the many measures to help check the public anger, but then such attempts in the past have been met with quite resistance by various sections, including the party that is now in power. Deepak Parekh, Chairman, HDFC has a word of caution in his wish list when he says, “The economic agenda is huge. What is needed is simplification. In the World Bank ranking on ease of doing business we are right at the bottom. I think the name of the game should be to make it simpler for people to invest.”

Though the government seems to be determined to improve business environment by easing laws and policies, it is not something that can be achieved in a short span of time. As a matter of fact, a long term strategy is needed to see tangible results after easing the FDI norms and time-bound clearances of projects. After all, a poor business environment has deterred the investment in India, of late, which is the biggest reason of decline in growth. Add to it, corruption and leakage in the system at every level and the new government has a challenge in hand to deal with.

There is no denying that long-pending reforms such as GST and DTC need to be implemented at the earliest. There is also a need to expedite the liberalisation of FDI regime. The India Inc is by and large optimistic that with a strong mandate, the new government will do well and will implement economic policies that benefit people and industry.

Rahul Gaur, CMD of Brys Group has a caveat here when he urges the new government to ease credit flow to industry and infrastructure. According to him, at a time when the government does not have financial surplus and the nation is struggling to manage with the shortages, the core focus should be to identify the execution capability to execute the large infra projects. For that the government should better create an atmosphere where private players have access to long term funds.

“The policies of the government have to be clear on the lending norms and the government should target steps to boost lending to infrastructure sector. Housing and infrastructure can revitalise the economy, create more jobs and bring overall change in the outlook to the economy. I do understand the reluctance of banks to fund infrastructure due to asset liability mismatch but then better infrastructure is the only way to help the country grow at above 8% GDP. I feel the time has come for the government to roll out clearly defined measures for ease of credit flow,” says Gaur. 

Analysts have often pointed out that one of the key areas where India could have reaped its demographic dividend is the manufacturing sector; something that China has already done in the last over two decades. The new government must take pro-active steps to encourage local manufacturing and for that it should give fast track clearances to stalled manufacturing projects; re-look the SEZ policy which have thus far proved to be detrimental and also the government can put the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor on a fast forward execution.

Many economists believe instead of pro-poor policies like NAREGA, streamlining the manufacturing is a better way to bring the poor into economic mainstream and also lessen India’s dependence on the agriculture. However, all these measures may sound to be very easily achievable, yet it needs time and concerted efforts to achieve. That could not be achieved in the last few years due to the compulsions of coalition politics. The challenge of governance is no doubt beyond the euphoria of a stable government.  

Will Varanasi bless or curse Lord Shiva’s political incarnation?

Battle ground Varanasi 

By: Ravi Sinha

March 23, 2014

The holy river Ganges flows quietly, unmindful of the fact that on its bank Varanasi has suddenly become the epicentre of political tremors. It is early morning of March third week but the weather is still cold; not so the climate otherwise where elections have made the ambience and political temperature of the city too ‘hot’. The early morning chill in the weather does not deter the God fearing Hindus to take a dip or two in the holy river. However, it is not the sin washing in the river that is the topic of debate today in this part of the world. It is the apprehension of more sins being committed during elections that has made India’s spiritual capital nervous; even though a section of the residents are enthusiastic with the prospect of a Prime Minister representing the Lok Sabha constituency of Varanasi for the first time.

The sin washing city has nevertheless got a date with electoral sins and siyasat. The way Lok Sabha polls are turning into personal glorification, holier-than-thou rhetoric and mudslinging in this temple town, it can be vouchsafed that Varanasi is poised to witness electoral sins this time and the possibility of candidates’ confrontation and violence can not be ruled out. The city that dawns the day with ‘Har Har Mahadev’ (Hail Lord Shiva) is today chanting ‘Har Har Modi’ (Hail Modi as PM), much to the discomfort of the sadhus and priests in the city.

Varanasi has changed over the years, earlier known as Kashi and Banaras; in the process of this name change it seems there has been a remarkable image makeover as well. It is no more just a temple town known for shradh and tarpan; nor is it known for its red light areas, known as kothas and the mujra. The old classic charm of Banarasi Saree has also lost its sheen over the years. The pace of cosmopolitan culture has been slow but sure, changing the outlook of the urban landscape to a large extent. The big question in front of the residents of the city today is whether Varanasi will change forever.

More important for Varanasi is the question as to whether it will get benefitted by the prospects of a Prime Minister representing the constituency? Or will the city just be of symbolic importance and the only compensation for the city would be long lasting politics of hatred? After all, Varanasi has moved ahead of the Ram Mandir movement days when the communal divide coming out of the neighbouring Ayodhya had engulfed the city. Again it took the city years to get back to normalcy when the students took to streets violently post the implementation of Mandal Commission recommendations where the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) was one of the key centres of caste divide.    

The scars of those gory days can still be traced and despite of years of moving ahead the city still goes to polls by and large divided over the caste lines. I met a number of people with deep roots in the city and its social & cultural fabric to understand the pulse and political mood of the holy city. I asked them will a new challenger in the ring bring the city into global spotlight. After all, many of the journalists representing international media are equally curious to know that. This mad rush to Varanasi by media, supporters of Modi and Kejriwal has led to scarcity of hotel rooms in the city.

With the help of a local journalist friend I could somehow settle in a guest house. Obviously, my probe of the city’s political temperament started from there only. “Beta ye Kejriwal toh aam aadmi nahin ganda aadmi hai. Bhagvaan hamare Banaras ko dharna pradarshan se bachaye (Son, this kejriwal is a filthy guy. May God save our city from protests and hooliganism),” says Vibha Devi, about 70-years-old caretaker of the guest house who has spent her lifetime in the city. Even otherwise, the residents of the city are least bothered with who is being projected by the media and who is getting demolished by soundbite hungry journalists.

Rakesh Sharma is a local Brahmin with half of the family into the business of temple maintenance & priesthood and the rest into selling sweets. Who is his choice as the Member of Parliament from the city? “Frankly speaking, no one,” says a dejected Sharma, maintaining that his first choice is and will always be with the BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi. “Modi has betrayed our trust in the saffron party, yet will see if any other candidate is not in a position to win then will vote for Modi only. It is irony of Banaras that we are being used for political gains,” he says. Why not a radical newcomer in Kejriwal who champions for clean politics? A dismissive Sharma’s face says it all. “He also champions for anarchy and lawlessness which is not good for the business community,” says Mannu Garg, a local shopkeeper who believes this guy is just a media time pass. He also makes it clear that the major share of Brahman-Baniya votes has historically gone to the same candidate.

However, it is not that Kejriwal’s self righteousness has no takers in the city. As a matter of fact, Garg’s outburst so openly led to minor scuffle by a few youths who, realising there is a journalist around, immediately brought out their “Aam Aadmi” caps and started shouting slogans in their trademark hooligan style and spirit. They are the backbone of a well orchestrated campaign of the debutant Aam Aadmi Party. Already the cyber cafes are doing a brisk business in the temple city as youths throng over these places to get connected over the social networking platforms.

On a closer look, however, the youth support is more of a fizz than substance. What seems to be working against Kejriwal is the same youth support, or rather lack of it, in terms of organised cadre. The students of BHU, IIT and medical colleges are not as enthusiastic in the city as in some other urban centres across India. Part of the blame goes to the disenchantment with Kejriwal’s mishandling of power in Delhi and partly because they endorse Modi as the Prime Minister.

“Why are you media guys that much interested in Kejriwal? Remember if he loses, he will blame it on to you journalists only,” says a sarcastic IIT student. Another BHU student points out that there is more than what meets the eyes as far as AAP campaign is concerned. For example, points out this student, the guy chanting Kejriwal’s “Abhi toh Shiela haari hai, Ab Modi ki baari hai” (Shiela Dixit has lost and now it is Modi’s turn) is actually a paid volunteer who was an activist for the BJP in the last Assembly polls.  

Even if the youths and first time voters go for Kejriwal the relevant question is whether the youths are enough to make someone win elections. And it is here that a new twist to the story comes. It is about the participation of women in the polls. Till now they have voted on the lines of what the men folk in their families have instructed for. Will it change this time? Will the women of Varanasi take a leaf out of Delhi women? If yes, then for whom? These are the questions that can upset the electoral calculations completely. Politics, after all, is a game of improbability.

What do the women in the city think of? “Modi ji ki jaroorat hai kyunki mehangai bahut badh gayi hai (Modi is needed as inflation is a real issue),” says Anjana Mathur, a house wife. This may just be a mere perception of a woman who hardly understands the intricacies of economics; nor does she know what drives inflation or what tames it. But then Varanasi, like the rest of the nation, goes to cast votes driven largely by perception. Question Gujarat’s developmental model with statistics and even the diehard NaMo fan has no answer.

But then Modi’s projection as political Lord Shiva has not gone down well in the temple town. And it is not just the saints and a section of Brahmins who find that the Lord Shiva’s mantle to Modi is in bad taste, but this undercurrent has many takers across the constituency of Varanasi. Requesting anonymity a Hindi lecturer of Banaras Hindu University admits that the undercurrent may prove to be the worst strategic move for the BJP. Also, too early declaration of Modi’s candidature has given the city enough time for a cost & benefit analysis, while opposition got the time to sharpen its attack on both development and communal card of Modi.

I asked some of the doctors and other educated people over their coming out openly in favour of the Kejriwal’s AAP. No one would like to admit openly but the answer, like in most parts of the urban India, seems to be quite simple. They know that it is next to impossible to get party tickets from the established political parties and hence vying for their share of the cake that they feel can be baked. That incidentally also dents into the vote share of the established political parties; in today’s context more of BJP’s vote share, because this urban educated middle class has otherwise been a BJP vote bank. AAP supporters maintain that the momentum for Kejriwal is yet to shape up and it is their trademark door-to-door campaigning close to the voting that will actually shape the course of polarisation.

It is not that BJP is not conscious of this biggest possible face loss. Arvind Kejriwal definitely does not appear like Amitabh Bachchan defeating HN Bahuguna in the neighbouring city of Allahabad in 1984, nor is there a backing of any Rajiv Gandhi to Kejriwal; at least the Congress is not going to back Kejriwal openly even though some tacit understanding is being whispered in the temple town nowadays. I spoke to the local unit of the BJP office in Gulab Bagh where many of the volunteers admitted that to merge river Ganges and Sabarmati in terms of political direction is a challenge. “To say that it is a walkover for Modi would amount to insulting our volunteers’ hard work,” admitted a party functionary requesting anonymity.  

Another challenge for the Modi is to counter the perception that he may desert the constituency after winning the elections. However, the dominant feeling in the temple city is narrated by this boatman Ganesh who says, “Varanasi has got the historic opportunity to elect the Prime Minister, and not just a Member of Parliament.” What seems to be working in favour of Modi is the strategic marriage of Hindutva, Social Engineering, Development and Division of Secular Votes.

“Is Congress out of the race,” I asked this to an office goer who belongs to Thakur (Rajput) community. “What makes you think so? Media can not make or break the fortunes of the candidates, not at least in Banaras,” says this gentleman. With last Lok Sabha polls being closely contested despite of the constituency being a Murli Manohar Joshi’s stronghold, he believes it is going to be a four-cornered contest between the BJP, Qaumi Ekta Dal’s Mukhtar Ansari, the BSP and the Congress. The only party that has lost the ground substantially with the face loss is the Samajwadi Party despite being in power in the State.

The role of the debutant in Kejriwal can not be denied but all his calculations are based on who eats into whose vote share. By and large Kejriwal is banking on wishful and fancy thoughts of a miracle. The division of secular votes is only going to benefit the BJP, unless there is a substantial erosion of urban educated middle class votes. Even in such a scenario, Kejriwal can get an edge only if this vote share swings in his favour, added with the consolidation of secular votes en masse for his style of politics.

The local journalists maintain that Kejriwal’s game plan is based on very many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ and even one loose end is enough for him to bite the dust. In terms of caste equations, erosion of vote share is only going to benefit the BJP as Kejriwal, Samajwadi Party’s Kailash Chaurasiya and BSP’s Vijay Prakash Jaiswal are all OBCs. If the Congress fields a credible Brahmin candidate, the loss of some Brahmin and OBC votes can really upset Modi, helping Ansari sweep the polls.

In terms of vote share, out of the 16 lakh voters in Varanasi, Muslims are 3 lakh voters, followed by Brahmins, Patels (Kurmis) and Baniyas having 2 lakh each, Yadavs, Dalits and Bhumihar have 1 lakh each votes. It also has a marginal Gujarat connection with around 25000 Gujarati voters. The BJP has won in 5 of the last 6 Lok Sabha polls while losing 2004 to Congress’ Rajesh Kumar Mishra. At present, out of the 5 Assembly seats that are part of the Varanasi Lok Sabha seat, BJP leads the region with 3 Vidhan Sabha seats.      

Who is the principal challenger for Modi? Is it Kejriwal? There is no denying that AAP has created a cadre within a short span of time but then most of the volunteers are either youth driven by false sense of idealism or the disgruntled elements of other parties who were denied what they were seeking for. Even if that translates into votes en block, Kejriwal does not stand as the principal challenger in a four-cornered fight. As a matter of fact, as things stand today, it is the Qaumi Ekta Dal candidate Mukhtar Ansari who can upset the PM aspirant, only if all secular votes are not divided.

If the Muslim votes are split between the Qaumi Ekta Dal, Congress, the BSP and AAP, then Modi is a clear winner. Shams Zaidi, a weaver of Banarasi Saree is optimistic of a Modi debacle. According to him, the Muslims nowadays do not vote en block but strategically to make sure that one can defeat the BJP. For the outside world, Mukhtar Ansari may be a mafia don, but for this weaver he is the ‘real hero’ of the constituency who can take the bull in Modi by horns. “Loha hi lohe ko kat sakta hai sahab, ek Modi jaise badmaash ka jawaab Mukhtar bhai hi de sakte hain (Only iron can cut iron sir. Only Mukhtar Ansari can face an evil Modi),” he says candidly.    

Can Muslim votes alone help Mukhtar Ansari upset the BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate? Jamshed Siddiqui, a local human rights activist makes it a point when he says that it is not just about the Muslim votes that are going to be cast en block to Mukhtar Ansari. “As a matter of fact, Mukhtar bhai has a clout in the region and is largely seen as messiah for the downtrodden. So, while the major share of the Muslim votes will go for him, some share of Dalit and OBC votes will add to that,” says Siddiqui.

Pandit Rajeev Mishra seems to agree with the orientation of Muslim votes. He, however, has a different reason to believe that Mukhtar is best placed to upset the BJP’s trump card in Varanasi. “Never forget the fact that Modi is a non-Brahmin who has usurped the seat of a Brahmin candidate and this has not gone down well with the Brahmins. Add to that his arrogance of replacing ‘Har Har Mahadev’ with ‘Har har Modi’ in the temple town of Varanasi. This has completely turned the Brahmins and priests off,” says Sharma. But will Brahmins ever vote for Mukhtar Ansari? “Definitely not, but if any other party, like the Congress for instance, fields a strong and acceptable Brahmin candidate then the Brahmin votes will go against Modi. The candidate himself may not win, but such a division of votes will definitely help the Ansari emerge as winner,” he adds.    

It is not that the stakes are high only for the BJP as their prime ministerial candidate is in the fray. As a matter of fact, the stakes are very high for AAP as well, since a defeat for Kejriwal means moral loss for the man who is the face of the party that challenges all the established political norms, parties and the institutions. His only hope and expectations bank on the combined voting of the youths, urban electorates and the women, if only they don’t vote on the identity politics of caste lines. That, unfortunately, is a ‘Big If’ in a city like Varanasi and Modi seems to be the frontrunner as of now.

Who knows last minute polarisation may give an edge to the Don in Ansari, the Congress or even the BSP candidate. After all, Varanasi has a date with political destiny and all eyes are set on the outcome. Old timers in the city are rather wondering whether Lord Shiva’s Varanasi will bless or curse its political incarnation. At least the old timers and the spiritual people in the city are not impressed with ‘Har Har Modi’ chants. But as the political analysts and local journalists in the city maintain the undercurrent in the city is conflicting this time and the choice is between blessing a Prime Ministerial candidate from the constituency and the urge to curse his projection as Shiva. 

Only wish that is on the lips of every concerned residents (both voters and non-voters) in the holy city that washes sins is that this last moment polarisation does not happen with more sins and violence that the politics of hatred threatens to unleash. The city is keeping its fingers crossed. Till the time the date of Varanasi with electoral sin is over, the temple city is sitting on a potential time bomb. The river Ganges nevertheless flows quietly and while sitting on its banks in the evening, Ganga Aarti is so therapeutic that it is easy to forget what all venom is being spitted in its arms in the name of electoral politics and governance. The nature does not endorse politics of hatred, and the holy river is really unmindful of what political plots are being hatched in its blessed temple town.    

An era of holier-than-thou politics sans responsibility

By: Ravi Sinha

Feb 2, 2014

Political advocacy always carries a moral high ground irrespective of whether it stands with a legitimate cause or it has hidden motives. Developing nations often fell prey to holier-than-thou breed of activists since the search for a political messiah is intrinsic due to the wide gap between wants and needs. The mismatch between expectations and delivery is partly a result of corruption & feudal functioning and partly due to the widening gap between the expectations and load on the resources.

India, of late, has been a victim of this political advocacy turned into political hooliganism that eventually threw open in the field many political aspirants whose only claim to fame has been their opposition and resistance to whatever the political establishment had to offer. The merit of India’s political class, or the lack of it, can be a different subject matter of discussion. However, what is significant for the country as of now is the fact that the so-called political alternatives are only giving a confused signal to the established political set-up and the masses, much to the amusement of the media which has suddenly found a new fodder for its TRP in a dog eats dog market.

As a result of this media-backed trial by a group of accusing and abusing political aspirants, India today stands at the corridor of political uncertainty and Delhi Assembly election results are a case study. It is much easier to defame a democratically elected government nowadays where a TRP hungry media and social media outlets are always there to vent out the outbursts. The logic often has no place in this world where contract killers of reputation are on the prowl. However, providing a better and viable political alternative is a different ball game altogether.

Those who demanded a high pedestal of morality from the established political institutions are today finding it difficult to provide something better and hence India seems to have entered an era of holier-than-thou politics that sans responsibility. After promising an honest & efficient government, the new breed of politicians seems to have got scared of responsibility, forget accountability. It is true that the mandate is not with the new player in the ring, yet by virtue of emerging second largest party with almost same vote share with the largest party despite of being a debutant demands that they must prove their worth to the emotionally charged up voters, having given a chance. 

It is said that every revolution has seeds of self destruction in its very DNA. Will the newly emerged political outfit that has systematically master minded the social and political unrest to reap political dividends end its own natural death? It is highly likely since the body language and the posturing of new-found political space seem to have gone to the level of arrogance. It is true that the Congress has been routed not only in Delhi but in all the four states, indicating an outburst against the party. But they have been graceful enough to admit it, congratulate the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) despite of slug fest during the polls and offered the unconditional support.

It is a rare phenomenon in Indian politics, but the response of the AAP has been that they don’t need approval of Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi for doing well. It is a new feudal way of politicking where grace is retaliated with arrogance. Furthermore, AAP seems to be in a moral & ideological dilemma over government formation. Their stated stand of neither soliciting nor extending support to either the BJP or the Congress already stands null & void when the wrote back letter to both the parties with their counter condition of support.

The political novices failed to understand that out of the 18 demands put forward by them as a condition of support, most of it does not even need Assembly nod and cabinet can take it own decision. Congress played the smart card by accepting the rest of the demands. Taken aback by this sudden Congress’ gesture/strategy they went into a huddle and afterwards came up with the fancy idea of referendum over SMS. Political immaturity apart, the political novices got exposed in the eyes of their own voters and many of them are today asking whether the AAP is in a position to implement the lofty promises that they made.

It is not about the government formation alone that is a cause of worry. The larger cause of worry is the direction in which the Indian democracy seems to be heading to. Holier-than-thou sans accountability may lead to populism all the time and referendum may be used as an alibi to any policy justification tomorrow. Do we want a civilised democracy to turn into mobocracy? These are the questions to be addressed and government formation by one or the other party is not something that can change the way Indian politics operates. The quest for a political messiah has hurt the country time and again. Yet, it seems the Indian voters have not learnt their lessons.