July 4, 2013, Ravi Sinha
Veteran
journalists often become ‘veteran’ on the merit of their ideological backing to
a given political party. It is not necessary that they actually believe in what
they advocate publicly. But in the process they turn out to be the poor Xerox
version of party hopping politicians looking for happy hunting ground. Senior
journalist TVR Shenoy’s recent assumption of BJP being in a positioning to form
a stable government at Centre and Narendra Modi being a polarising factor is a
classic case in point.
Though I do not
carry any authority to dictate or moderate any individuals’ fundamental right
to opt for a governance choice—good, bad or indifferent but still would maintain
that a political analyst should not write a pleasure analysis to a political
party that promises to boomerang on the face of the writer itself in the days
to come. Having said this, I understand that what bifurcates between political
analysis and political advocacy in collective consciousness is very thin,
especially when the stakes are pretty high, ranging from decorative ‘Padma Bibhushan’
to coveted ‘Rajya Sabha’ seat.
I believe it is better to be known as a journalist with outstanding credibility and tell on the face of the political party their grey zones, even if one ideologically supports them. That gives the journalist more credibility both as a party ideologue and from advocacy standpoint. With my limited exposure and understanding of Indian politics after nearly two decades of having seen it closely; first as a student leader, then a trade unionist and later as a journalist, I find no merit in the argument that next Lok Sabha will have a BJP-led government.
Even if BJP emerges as the single largest party in the next Lok Sabha elections, it is not the same BJP with a Vajpayee kind of manipulative organiser to hold the flock of 24 unlike-minded political parties. An arrogant Modi is not acceptable to the BJP itself within the party, forget the alliance partners.
Furthermore, the argument that the single largest party keeping out of government is a fundamental insult to the democracy is a misplaced conviction. This also challenges the fundamental tenets of democracy which has never been able to representational character world over. Added to this, the history of Indian democracy shows how the Congress has itself opted out of the government twice despite of emerging as the single largest party.
In the general election of 1989 the Congress won 197 seats, well ahead of the (then united) Janata Dal, which won 143 seats and BJP 85 seats with the Left Front getting 52 seats. V P Singh then became the Prime Minister not by playing on the fears of both the BJP and the Left Front, as TVR Shenoy would like us to believe, but because the Congress read the writing of an unstable government on the wall and strategically played it smart to bounce back to power within 15 months.
History repeated itself again in 1996 when the single largest party in the eleventh Lok Sabha was the BJP, with 161 seats. The Congress was second, having won 140 seats. But while the BJP remained untouchable to forge an alliance for the government, Congress played the trump card by roping in the Prime Minister of India to a man from a party with just 46 seats, the Janata Dal. True to the expectations of the Congress, the eleventh Lok Sabha lasted just over eighteen months before it was dissolved.
Coming to the next Lok Sabha elections, whether 2014 or 2013 itself, while the BJP is struggling to cope up with the leadership changes where the party stalwarts themselves are up against the so-called polarising figure in Modi, the BJP is slowly but surely losing grip on its core constituency and the states that it rules. If Karnataka was a big blow to them, coming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are poised to be the beginning of the end of the BJP era that Vajpayee heralded 1996 onwards.
Moreover, no leader in any political party has ever been able to emerge as the national leader who does not come from the Hindi heartland, and Modi is no exception. Even Morarji Desai could not challenge this reality of Indian politics. Modi’s mindless PR of having saved 15,000 Gujaratis in Uttarakhand calamity in a single day has already proved that the rumour machinery that he so successfully managed in Gujarat does not have a national charisma. Added to this, the criminal cases related with Godhra and fake encounters looming large over his fortunes would be a great dampener for the BJP on the eve of general elections.
The short sighted parent organisation that the RSS is, it is also not helping the cause of the BJP. The saffron brigade that only recently glorified the so-called transparency movement of Anna Hazare assuming that such a rumour and road-side publicity stunt would defame the Congress and mobilise votes for them has already boomeranged on the BJP. Now Kejriwal may not be in a position to win any elections for his party but will surely eat into the anti-incumbency votes that would have otherwise gone to the BJP. Needless to say, the conventional wisdom of electoral politics suggests that such Index of Opposition Diversity is going to help the Congress in a big way.
Moreover, the Congress that is the most strategic in governance and electoral politics has already started working on Plan A and Plan B. Remember it was not the BJP but the Congress that started Modi’s name dropping as a strategic ploy to play with the mind of the BJP. The realisation that the next Lok Sabha elections would be purely on national issues made them add fuel to the fire of so-called polarisation. And now it is going to be secular versus communal forces where even the regional parties are forced to take sides.
As a result, BJP’s first casualty has been Bihar Government of Nitish Kumar who is up to the sleeves of the Congress as Plan B. And since BJP is increasingly losing ground in each of the states, this game plan has viability as well. In case Congress fails to form its own government, something like the 1989 or 1996 scenario, it will extend outside support to the Third Front. Mr Shenoy’s remark on Third Front alliance of Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee, Navin Patnaik as East India Company is a racist statement in my opinion.
Such right wing political advocacy only makes the ideologue lose
his credibility and lose his political spectrum as well in the long run. In the
BJP right from Govindacharya to Swapan Dasgupta there is a long list of
ideologues who floated heroic theories of BJP Government at the Centre only to
be sidelined in course of its inherent failure. It is not the political
advocacy that leads to the government formation but the ground realities that
are at odds against the BJP. I can just wish Mr TVR Shenoy all the best…
